Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

420.1 – 289.67

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

340 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 557.4 ±11

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 239.49Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 25.8Rank 48Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 154.81Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.2 ±11

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 32.17Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 142.57Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 114.93Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 180, 9404, 179

/ 100 compat

Projected

420.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 180, 9404, 179

Auto

93.9 22%

Teleop

229.5 55%

Endgame

95.9 23%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5816, 8159, 3932

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5816, 8159, 3932

Auto

56.9 21%

Teleop

159.5 58%

Endgame

57.6 21%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score420.1pts

Blue projected score289.7pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 130.4
Score range: 267–443
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 594 vs event baseline 129.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

557.4Season APEX545.2

93.9Auto56.9

229.5Teleop159.5

95.9Endgame57.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	76
teleop	164	103
endgame	49	60
foul	45	15
total	340	254

Result

Final score

340 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 pts

Match videos

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