Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

424.02 – 286.34

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

398 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 557.4 ±11

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 240.9Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 26.96Rank 48Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 156.16Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.2 ±11

5816Gra-V Robotics

Season APEX 65.6Event APEX 31.03Rank 18Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 141.39Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 113.92Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 180, 9404, 179

/ 100 compat

Projected

424 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 180, 9404, 179

Auto

89.5 21%

Teleop

234.8 55%

Endgame

98.9 23%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5816, 8159, 3932

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5816, 8159, 3932

Auto

57.8 21%

Teleop

155.2 57%

Endgame

58.4 22%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score424pts

Blue projected score286.3pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.7
Score range: 263–447
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 709 vs event baseline 126.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

557.4Season APEX545.2

89.5Auto57.8

234.8Teleop155.2

98.9Endgame58.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	51
teleop	200	187
endgame	79	53
foul	0	20
total	398	311

Result

Final score

398 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 pts

Match videos

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