Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
557.14 – 544.53
54%46%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
366 – 504
Prediction missed · off by 115.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 837.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 189.3Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 243.01Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 256Event APEX 124.83Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 790.7 ±9.3
Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 180.84Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 256Event APEX 171.43Rank 52Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 315Event APEX 192.26Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4028, 3538, 9094
84
/ 100 compatProjected
557.1 pts
~1.9 RP (championship)
Teams: 4028, 3538, 9094
Auto
120.4 22%
Teleop
298.8 54%
Endgame
131.1 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 23%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6017, 1156, 2073
79
/ 100 compatProjected
544.5 pts
~1.6 RP (championship)
Teams: 6017, 1156, 2073
Auto
77.0 14%
Teleop
325.8 60%
Endgame
138.0 26%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 23%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.58
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score557.1pts
Blue projected score544.5pts
Red win probability54%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%
Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 18%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 12.6
- Score range
- 473–629
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
837.9Season APEX790.7
120.4Auto77
298.8Teleop325.8
131.1Endgame138
104Consistency92
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 90 | 53 |
| teleop | 194 | 300 |
| endgame | 72 | 141 |
| foul | 10 | 10 |
| total | 366 | 504 |
Result
Final score
366 – 504
Prediction missed · off by 115.8 pts
Match videos
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