Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

869.56 – 523.03

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

813 – 439

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1072.2 ±8.7

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 127.42Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 416.06Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 326.08Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 779 ±13.5

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 160.73Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 144.95Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 217.35Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 4414, 1323

/ 100 compat

Projected

869.6 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4065, 4414, 1323

Auto

146.6 17%

Teleop

491.1 57%

Endgame

222.9 26%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10213, 3339, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

523 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 10213, 3339, 5813

Auto

80.6 16%

Teleop

314.7 61%

Endgame

121.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.78 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score869.6pts

Blue projected score523pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 346.5
Score range: 451–942
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1252 vs event baseline 399.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1072.2Season APEX779

146.6Auto80.6

491.1Teleop314.7

222.9Endgame121

146Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	184	108
teleop	420	184
endgame	159	127
foul	50	20
total	813	439

Result

Final score

813 – 439

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.