Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

537.69 – 555.3

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

358 – 511

Prediction correct · off by 112 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 703.1 ±9.8

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 129.17Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3478PrepaTec - LamBot

Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 231.13Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 177.39Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 859.9 ±9.3

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 184.21Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 164.41Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 206.68Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1939, 3478, 3656

/ 100 compat

Projected

537.7 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1939, 3478, 3656

Auto

110.1 21%

Teleop

300.7 59%

Endgame

102.5 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 340, 11, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

555.3 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 340, 11, 316

Auto

107.7 20%

Teleop

282.0 52%

Endgame

151.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score537.7pts

Blue projected score555.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.6
Score range: 466–627
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 869 vs event baseline 397.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

703.1Season APEX859.9

110.1Auto107.7

300.7Teleop282

102.5Endgame151.3

104Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	127	145
teleop	128	236
endgame	78	115
foul	25	15
total	358	511

Result

Final score

358 – 511

Prediction correct · off by 112 pts

Match videos

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