Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
566.56 – 486.52
73%27%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
622 – 636
Prediction missed · off by 102.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 844.5 ±9.3
Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 181.14Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 250Event APEX 184.06Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 201.36Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 779 ±13.5
Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 147.92Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 132.96Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 205.64Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 340, 469, 316
88
/ 100 compatProjected
566.6 pts
~2.3 RP (championship)
Teams: 340, 469, 316
Auto
120.0 22%
Teleop
277.1 50%
Endgame
160.4 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 21%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10213, 3339, 5813
74
/ 100 compatProjected
486.5 pts
~1.3 RP (championship)
Teams: 10213, 3339, 5813
Auto
75.3 16%
Teleop
302.7 63%
Endgame
104.5 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 21%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.3
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score566.6pts
Blue projected score486.5pts
Red win probability73%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 20%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 80
- Score range
- 416–638
- Upset likelihood
- 27%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Upset
Close match
High scoring
Playoff
Combined score 1258 vs event baseline 393.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
844.5Season APEX779
120Auto75.3
277.1Teleop302.7
160.4Endgame104.5
140Consistency124
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 131 | 98 |
| teleop | 328 | 352 |
| endgame | 158 | 171 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 622 | 636 |
Result
Final score
622 – 636
Prediction missed · off by 102.5 pts
Match videos
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