Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
814.37 – 536.89
97%3%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
885 – 547
Prediction correct · off by 40.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 1127.6 ±8.7
Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 82.83Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 411.6Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 319.94Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 703.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 214Event APEX 129.51Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 229.37Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 178.01Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1538, 4414, 1323
90
/ 100 compatProjected
814.4 pts
~2.8 RP (championship)
Teams: 1538, 4414, 1323
Auto
161.1 20%
Teleop
434.6 54%
Endgame
208.1 26%
Strengths
- · 4414 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 31%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1939, 3478, 3656
79
/ 100 compatProjected
536.9 pts
~0.9 RP (championship)
Teams: 1939, 3478, 3656
Auto
113.7 22%
Teleop
316.0 61%
Endgame
84.7 16%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 31%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.83 · Blue 0.86
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score814.4pts
Blue projected score536.9pts
Red win probability97%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 25%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 277.5
- Score range
- 467–884
- Upset likelihood
- 3%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
1127.6Season APEX703.1
161.1Auto113.7
434.6Teleop316
208.1Endgame84.7
147Consistency96
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 204 | 104 |
| teleop | 496 | 264 |
| endgame | 180 | 149 |
| foul | 5 | 30 |
| total | 885 | 547 |
Result
Final score
885 – 547
Prediction correct · off by 40.4 pts
Match videos
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