Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
536.6 – 644.01
21%79%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
450 – 0
Prediction missed · off by 365.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 790.7 ±9.3
Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 178.28Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 256Event APEX 170Rank 52Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 315Event APEX 188.32Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 858.5 ±8.8
Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 260.31Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 186.68Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 197.02Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6017, 1156, 2073
78
/ 100 compatProjected
536.6 pts
~1.1 RP (championship)
Teams: 6017, 1156, 2073
Auto
80.7 15%
Teleop
308.5 58%
Endgame
139.9 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 18%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1325, 6941, 176
88
/ 100 compatProjected
644 pts
~2.4 RP (championship)
Teams: 1325, 6941, 176
Auto
132.7 21%
Teleop
351.0 55%
Endgame
154.3 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 18%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.07 · Blue 2.37
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score536.6pts
Blue projected score644pts
Red win probability21%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 45%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 21%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -107.4
- Score range
- 464–717
- Upset likelihood
- 21%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
790.7Season APEX858.5
80.7Auto132.7
308.5Teleop351
139.9Endgame154.3
110Consistency108
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 117 | 122 |
| teleop | 236 | 370 |
| endgame | 82 | 137 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 450 | 0 |
Result
Final score
450 – 0
Prediction missed · off by 365.3 pts
Match videos
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