Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
542.86 – 646.24
22%78%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
555 – 631
Prediction correct · off by 13.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 859.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 180.98Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 158.81Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 203.07Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 858.5 ±8.8
Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 261.07Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 187.4Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 197.77Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 340, 11, 316
85
/ 100 compatProjected
542.9 pts
~1.2 RP (championship)
Teams: 340, 11, 316
Auto
114.8 22%
Teleop
276.2 52%
Endgame
138.1 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 17%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1325, 6941, 176
87
/ 100 compatProjected
646.2 pts
~2.4 RP (championship)
Teams: 1325, 6941, 176
Auto
134.6 21%
Teleop
358.9 56%
Endgame
149.1 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 17%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.36
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score542.9pts
Blue projected score646.2pts
Red win probability22%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 21%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -103.4
- Score range
- 470–719
- Upset likelihood
- 22%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
859.9Season APEX858.5
114.8Auto134.6
276.2Teleop358.9
138.1Endgame149.1
157Consistency105
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 147 | 122 |
| teleop | 246 | 304 |
| endgame | 152 | 185 |
| foul | 10 | 20 |
| total | 555 | 631 |
Result
Final score
555 – 631
Prediction correct · off by 13.7 pts
Match videos
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