Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
858.63 – 535.83
98%2%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
798 – 536
Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 1072.2 ±8.7
Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 121.15Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 413.93Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 323.55Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 790.7 ±9.3
Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 177.82Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 256Event APEX 169.5Rank 52Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 315Event APEX 188.51Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4065, 4414, 1323
87
/ 100 compatProjected
858.6 pts
~2.8 RP (championship)
Teams: 4065, 4414, 1323
Auto
156.1 19%
Teleop
476.5 57%
Endgame
207.5 25%
Strengths
- · 4414 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 29%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6017, 1156, 2073
78
/ 100 compatProjected
535.8 pts
~0.7 RP (championship)
Teams: 6017, 1156, 2073
Auto
72.3 14%
Teleop
320.8 60%
Endgame
137.8 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 29%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.78 · Blue 0.69
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score858.6pts
Blue projected score535.8pts
Red win probability98%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 51%, blue 45%
Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 18%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 322.8
- Score range
- 463–932
- Upset likelihood
- 2%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
1072.2Season APEX790.7
156.1Auto72.3
476.5Teleop320.8
207.5Endgame137.8
114Consistency102
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 193 | 125 |
| teleop | 478 | 245 |
| endgame | 122 | 146 |
| foul | 5 | 20 |
| total | 798 | 536 |
Result
Final score
798 – 536
Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts
Match videos
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