Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

538.52 – 545.01

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

378 – 533

Prediction correct · off by 86.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 771.4 ±9.8

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 176.7Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 230.94Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 130.88Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 859.9 ±9.3

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 181.97Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 159.83Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 203.21Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4028, 3538, 7632

/ 100 compat

Projected

538.5 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4028, 3538, 7632

Auto

106.8 20%

Teleop

304.4 57%

Endgame

118.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 340, 11, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

545 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 340, 11, 316

Auto

117.2 22%

Teleop

271.0 51%

Endgame

142.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score538.5pts

Blue projected score545pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.5
Score range: 467–617
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 911 vs event baseline 402.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

771.4Season APEX859.9

106.8Auto117.2

304.4Teleop271

118.3Endgame142.2

89Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	102
teleop	176	298
endgame	111	123
foul	15	10
total	378	533

Result

Final score

378 – 533

Prediction correct · off by 86.3 pts

Match videos

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