Qualification · Qualification 99

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

412.63 – 429.67

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

224 – 466

Prediction correct · off by 112.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.8 ±8.7

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 128.72Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 192.47Rank 52Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 91.44Rank 38Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 756.6 ±8.7

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 95.9Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 216.71Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 117.06Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5534, 1156, 2429

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.6 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 5534, 1156, 2429

Auto

94.4 23%

Teleop

218.6 52%

Endgame

104.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 624, 316, 6919

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.7 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 624, 316, 6919

Auto

69.4 16%

Teleop

201.6 48%

Endgame

150.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score412.6pts

Blue projected score429.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17
Score range: 343–500
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 690 vs event baseline 390.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.8Season APEX756.6

94.4Auto69.4

218.6Teleop201.6

104.4Endgame150.1

85Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	113
teleop	108	247
endgame	34	101
foul	5	5
total	224	466

Result

Final score

224 – 466

Prediction correct · off by 112.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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