Qualification · Qualification 96

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

336.36 – 346.83

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

503 – 360

Prediction missed · off by 89.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 665.4 ±9.8

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 109.62Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 64.96Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 161.78Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 615.5 ±9.9

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 47.93Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 195.6Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 103.3Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2399, 2718, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.4 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2399, 2718, 11

Auto

69.9 21%

Teleop

191.7 57%

Endgame

74.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5557, 3656, 972

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.8 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 5557, 3656, 972

Auto

58.7 18%

Teleop

175.7 53%

Endgame

95.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score336.4pts

Blue projected score346.8pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.5
Score range: 266–417
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 863 vs event baseline 389.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

665.4Season APEX615.5

69.9Auto58.7

191.7Teleop175.7

74Endgame95.1

144Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	76
teleop	306	240
endgame	145	39
foul	0	5
total	503	360

Result

Final score

503 – 360

Prediction missed · off by 89.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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