Qualification · Qualification 94

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

310.24 – 334.81

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 81.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.6 ±9.8

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 136.39Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 10.82Rank 73Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 163.03Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 580.1 ±10.4

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 177.57Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 76.11Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 81.13Rank 31Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7632, 10619, 5847

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.2 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 7632, 10619, 5847

Auto

50.9 16%

Teleop

207.0 67%

Endgame

52.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4028, 999, 9175

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.8 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4028, 999, 9175

Auto

83.8 27%

Teleop

156.3 50%

Endgame

73.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score310.2pts

Blue projected score334.8pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.6
Score range: 239–406
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 482 vs event baseline 392.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

531.6Season APEX580.1

50.9Auto83.8

207Teleop156.3

52.4Endgame73.1

93Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	85
teleop	97	175
endgame	29	41
foul	10	0
total	181	301

Result

Final score

181 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 81.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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