Qualification · Qualification 91

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

314.29 – 495.78

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

389 – 506

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 647.1 ±9.3

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 135.15Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 73.3Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 105.84Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 766.1 ±8.7

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 206.73Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 92.27Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 196.78Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4065, 4189, 9545

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.3 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4065, 4189, 9545

Auto

51.1 16%

Teleop

167.7 53%

Endgame

95.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 272, 1629, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

495.8 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 272, 1629, 4678

Auto

88.0 18%

Teleop

278.8 57%

Endgame

118.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score314.3pts

Blue projected score495.8pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -181.5
Score range: 243–567
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 895 vs event baseline 392.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

647.1Season APEX766.1

51.1Auto88

167.7Teleop278.8

95.5Endgame118.7

91Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	110
teleop	241	286
endgame	59	100
foul	45	10
total	389	506

Result

Final score

389 – 506

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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