Qualification · Qualification 89

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

476.75 – 494.8

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

431 – 463

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 711.3 ±9.3

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 109.85Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 199.85Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 167.05Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 684.6 ±9.3

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 128.37Rank 23Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 195.17Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 171.26Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1727, 6941, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

476.8 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 1727, 6941, 469

Auto

64.9 14%

Teleop

263.0 55%

Endgame

146.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1720, 2472, 176

/ 100 compat

Projected

494.8 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1720, 2472, 176

Auto

102.0 21%

Teleop

270.7 56%

Endgame

114.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score476.8pts

Blue projected score494.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.1
Score range: 407–565
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 894 vs event baseline 390.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

711.3Season APEX684.6

64.9Auto102

263Teleop270.7

146.2Endgame114.8

170Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	118
teleop	209	259
endgame	118	81
foul	5	5
total	431	463

Result

Final score

431 – 463

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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