Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

163.6 – 303.13

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 76.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 614.2 ±10.7

6106PrepaTec - TecGear

Season APEX 221Event APEX 22.97Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 86.69Rank 38Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 53.94Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 510.3 ±10.4

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 89.18Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 88.82Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 125.13Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6106, 2429, 1741

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.6 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 6106, 2429, 1741

Auto

93.4 61%

Teleop

48.8 32%

Endgame

10.1 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 999, 6391, 2399

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.1 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 999, 6391, 2399

Auto

78.9 27%

Teleop

145.0 50%

Endgame

65.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score163.6pts

Blue projected score303.1pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -139.5
Score range: 94–373
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 453 vs event baseline 391.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

614.2Season APEX510.3

93.4Auto78.9

48.8Teleop145

10.1Endgame65.1

119Consistency183

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	66
teleop	80	96
endgame	50	48
foul	15	10
total	233	220

Result

Final score

233 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 76.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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