Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

218.54 – 331.75

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 113.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 586.8 ±12.2

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 169.09Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX -4.15Rank 62Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 53.6Rank 75Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 534.2 ±10.5

4188Columbus Space Program

Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 141.55Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 123.64Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 66.56Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4028, 3008, 10002

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.5 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4028, 3008, 10002

Auto

67.5 32%

Teleop

103.8 49%

Endgame

39.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4188, 3646, 11178

/ 100 compat

Projected

331.8 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 4188, 3646, 11178

Auto

65.4 20%

Teleop

150.1 47%

Endgame

106.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score218.5pts

Blue projected score331.8pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -113.2
Score range: 148–403
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 479 vs event baseline 393.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

586.8Season APEX534.2

67.5Auto65.4

103.8Teleop150.1

39.3Endgame106.1

106Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	36
teleop	136	99
endgame	59	43
foul	45	5
total	296	183

Result

Final score

296 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 113.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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