Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

484.85 – 330.36

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

355 – 397

Prediction missed · off by 98.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 684.2 ±9.8

3478PrepaTec - LamBot

Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 257.74Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 151.56Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 75.55Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 649.6 ±10.4

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 40.87Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 150.12Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 139.37Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3478, 4065, 3990

/ 100 compat

Projected

484.9 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 3478, 4065, 3990

Auto

91.8 19%

Teleop

285.9 60%

Endgame

100.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 303, 5847, 2883

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.4 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 303, 5847, 2883

Auto

79.1 23%

Teleop

190.8 55%

Endgame

76.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score484.9pts

Blue projected score330.4pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154.5
Score range: 259–556
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 752 vs event baseline 392.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

684.2Season APEX649.6

91.8Auto79.1

285.9Teleop190.8

100.7Endgame76.5

143Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	75
teleop	176	206
endgame	103	91
foul	5	25
total	355	397

Result

Final score

355 – 397

Prediction missed · off by 98.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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