Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

451.23 – 642.78

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

400 – 570

Prediction correct · off by 62 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 743.2 ±9.3

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 165.62Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 81.06Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 204.55Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 894.1 ±9.3

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 119.36Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 415.03Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 108.39Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11, 4189, 6941

/ 100 compat

Projected

451.2 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 11, 4189, 6941

Auto

60.7 14%

Teleop

265.9 59%

Endgame

120.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8393, 4414, 9094

/ 100 compat

Projected

642.8 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 8393, 4414, 9094

Auto

130.2 20%

Teleop

334.7 52%

Endgame

176.8 28%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score451.2pts

Blue projected score642.8pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -191.5
Score range: 381–713
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 970 vs event baseline 391.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

743.2Season APEX894.1

60.7Auto130.2

265.9Teleop334.7

120.5Endgame176.8

132Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	56
teleop	185	277
endgame	130	212
foul	0	25
total	400	570

Result

Final score

400 – 570

Prediction correct · off by 62 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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