Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

469.67 – 563.91

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

595 – 509

Prediction missed · off by 90.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 745.7 ±9.4

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 103.22Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 251.38Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 115.07Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 829.7 ±8.7

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 182.66Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 161.31Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 219.94Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1939, 1325, 11141

/ 100 compat

Projected

469.7 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 1939, 1325, 11141

Auto

94.1 20%

Teleop

285.5 61%

Endgame

86.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 469, 5813, 2073

/ 100 compat

Projected

563.9 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 469, 5813, 2073

Auto

95.3 17%

Teleop

361.6 65%

Endgame

100.8 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score469.7pts

Blue projected score563.9pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.2
Score range: 400–634
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1104 vs event baseline 389.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

745.7Season APEX829.7

94.1Auto95.3

285.5Teleop361.6

86.7Endgame100.8

130Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	108	52
teleop	342	318
endgame	140	139
foul	5	0
total	595	509

Result

Final score

595 – 509

Prediction missed · off by 90.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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