Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

431.48 – 301.55

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

415 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 93.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 727.9 ±9.8

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 134.6Rank 23Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 157.45Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 139.43Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 581.5 ±9.8

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 89.09Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 137.15Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 75.31Rank 50Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1720, 340, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.5 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1720, 340, 2338

Auto

68.5 16%

Teleop

262.7 61%

Endgame

102.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6696, 9545, 5550

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.6 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 6696, 9545, 5550

Auto

61.7 22%

Teleop

167.6 60%

Endgame

51.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score431.5pts

Blue projected score301.6pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.9
Score range: 232–501
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 546 vs event baseline 390.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

727.9Season APEX581.5

68.5Auto61.7

262.7Teleop167.6

102.8Endgame51.6

143Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	24
teleop	218	86
endgame	113	16
foul	0	5
total	415	131

Result

Final score

415 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 93.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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