Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

398.8 – 192.74

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

397 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 76.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 704.7 ±11.2

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 139.1Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 87.68Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 172.02Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 533.6 ±11

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX -20.83Rank 74Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 45.43Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 168.14Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10213, 6998, 7520

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.8 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 10213, 6998, 7520

Auto

58.7 15%

Teleop

195.4 51%

Endgame

126.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10229, 2718, 2472

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.7 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 10229, 2718, 2472

Auto

46.1 25%

Teleop

131.0 71%

Endgame

8.4 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score398.8pts

Blue projected score192.7pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 206.1
Score range: 123–469
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 741 vs event baseline 390.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

704.7Season APEX533.6

58.7Auto46.1

195.4Teleop131

126.3Endgame8.4

164Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	72
teleop	229	163
endgame	123	109
foul	5	0
total	397	344

Result

Final score

397 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 76.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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