Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

432.8 – 365.45

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

442 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 870 ±8.7

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 65.19Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 233.87Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 133.74Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 706.8 ±13.5

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 102.87Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 133.27Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 129.31Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1538, 316, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

432.8 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 1538, 316, 3314

Auto

90.1 21%

Teleop

209.5 50%

Endgame

122.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3100, 3339, 1727

/ 100 compat

Projected

365.5 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 3100, 3339, 1727

Auto

57.7 16%

Teleop

197.8 56%

Endgame

96.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score432.8pts

Blue projected score365.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.4
Score range: 295–503
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 692 vs event baseline 391.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

870Season APEX706.8

90.1Auto57.7

209.5Teleop197.8

122.2Endgame96.9

166Consistency185

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	51
teleop	189	128
endgame	120	66
foul	10	5
total	442	250

Result

Final score

442 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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