Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

240.79 – 249.99

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 586.1 ±11.2

10002BotBuilders

Season APEX 195.3Event APEX 63.46Rank 75Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 78.13Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 99.2Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 556.7 ±10.5

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 19.88Rank 51Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 98.54Rank 31Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 131.57Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10002, 11178, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.8 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 10002, 11178, 624

Auto

37.6 15%

Teleop

134.9 54%

Endgame

75.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3880, 9175, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

250 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3880, 9175, 5937

Auto

47.3 19%

Teleop

110.0 45%

Endgame

89.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score240.8pts

Blue projected score250pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.2
Score range: 170–321
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 394.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

586.1Season APEX556.7

37.6Auto47.3

134.9Teleop110

75.9Endgame89.4

156Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	44
teleop	75	114
endgame	24	68
foul	0	0
total	156	226

Result

Final score

156 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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