Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

306.14 – 687.7

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 820

Prediction correct · off by 129.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 660.8 ±10.7

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 110.46Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6106PrepaTec - TecGear

Season APEX 221Event APEX 36.26Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 159.42Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 889 ±8.7

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 162.81Rank 52Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4188Columbus Space Program

Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 128.19Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 396.7Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1629, 6106, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.1 pts

~0.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 1629, 6106, 1676

Auto

81.7 27%

Teleop

107.0 35%

Endgame

117.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1156, 4188, 4414

/ 100 compat

Projected

687.7 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1156, 4188, 4414

Auto

117.6 17%

Teleop

389.2 57%

Endgame

179.3 26%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score306.1pts

Blue projected score687.7pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -381.6
Score range: 235–759
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 999 vs event baseline 392.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

660.8Season APEX889

81.7Auto117.6

107Teleop389.2

117.3Endgame179.3

143Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	148
teleop	74	430
endgame	37	237
foul	15	5
total	179	820

Result

Final score

179 – 820

Prediction correct · off by 129.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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