Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

262.29 – 414.6

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

285 – 593

Prediction correct · off by 100.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 639.9 ±9.8

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 115.23Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 64.03Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 83.03Rank 38Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 746.8 ±9.8

8393The Giant Diencephalic BrainSTEM Robotics Team

Season APEX 219.2Event APEX 92.1Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 153.78Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 168.72Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11141, 3990, 2429

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.3 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 11141, 3990, 2429

Auto

74.8 28%

Teleop

152.6 56%

Endgame

43.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8393, 4028, 3656

/ 100 compat

Projected

414.6 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 8393, 4028, 3656

Auto

108.9 28%

Teleop

196.0 50%

Endgame

87.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score262.3pts

Blue projected score414.6pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -152.3
Score range: 191–486
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 878 vs event baseline 392.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

639.9Season APEX746.8

74.8Auto108.9

152.6Teleop196

43.4Endgame87.8

113Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	118
teleop	151	281
endgame	27	169
foul	0	25
total	285	593

Result

Final score

285 – 593

Prediction correct · off by 100.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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