Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

330.55 – 322.35

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

260 – 368

Prediction missed · off by 58.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.7 ±12.2

6017PrepaTec - Cyberius

Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 203.53Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 97.76Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 29.26Rank 62Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 648.8 ±9.3

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 119.99Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 114.57Rank 23Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 87.79Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6017, 6998, 3008

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.6 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 6017, 6998, 3008

Auto

46.7 15%

Teleop

154.9 51%

Endgame

99.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2399, 1720, 972

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.4 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2399, 1720, 972

Auto

74.4 23%

Teleop

176.1 55%

Endgame

68.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score330.6pts

Blue projected score322.4pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.2
Score range: 251–402
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 628 vs event baseline 393.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571.7Season APEX648.8

46.7Auto74.4

154.9Teleop176.1

99.7Endgame68.2

112Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	65
teleop	143	200
endgame	43	98
foul	0	5
total	260	368

Result

Final score

260 – 368

Prediction missed · off by 58.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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