Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

316.02 – 305.02

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

320 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 5.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 584.6 ±11.1

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX -21.89Rank 74Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 124.78Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 213.13Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 552.8 ±8.7

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 11.67Rank 73Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 137.44Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 155.91Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10229, 3646, 2073

/ 100 compat

Projected

316 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 10229, 3646, 2073

Auto

46.5 15%

Teleop

178.6 59%

Endgame

77.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10619, 1727, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

305 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 10619, 1727, 11

Auto

30.9 10%

Teleop

184.1 61%

Endgame

88.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score316pts

Blue projected score305pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11
Score range: 234–387
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 618 vs event baseline 392.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

584.6Season APEX552.8

46.5Auto30.9

178.6Teleop184.1

77.5Endgame88.4

163Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	35
teleop	167	194
endgame	89	54
foul	5	15
total	320	298

Result

Final score

320 – 298

Prediction correct · off by 5.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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