Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

434.97 – 403.46

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

525 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 95.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 704.6 ±9.3

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 140.41Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 149.21Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4065Nerds of Prey

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 145.35Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 669.1 ±9.3

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 148.64Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 124.8Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 130.02Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5813, 2472, 4065

/ 100 compat

Projected

435 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 5813, 2472, 4065

Auto

77.8 18%

Teleop

266.6 63%

Endgame

76.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6919, 1058, 7632

/ 100 compat

Projected

403.5 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 6919, 1058, 7632

Auto

92.8 23%

Teleop

223.6 56%

Endgame

84.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score435pts

Blue projected score403.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.5
Score range: 332–506
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 828 vs event baseline 392.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

704.6Season APEX669.1

77.8Auto92.8

266.6Teleop223.6

76.2Endgame84.1

172Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	18
teleop	384	195
endgame	73	85
foul	5	5
total	525	303

Result

Final score

525 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 95.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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