Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

369.37 – 314.38

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

369 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 640.6 ±10.5

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 155.72Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 148.96Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 64.69Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 680.2 ±11.2

11141AlphaZ

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 124.74Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6106PrepaTec - TecGear

Season APEX 221Event APEX 52.39Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 137.25Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4674, 4678, 5557

/ 100 compat

Projected

369.4 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4674, 4678, 5557

Auto

65.1 18%

Teleop

236.3 66%

Endgame

57.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11141, 6106, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.4 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 11141, 6106, 3314

Auto

59.4 18%

Teleop

186.9 57%

Endgame

83.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score369.4pts

Blue projected score314.4pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55
Score range: 243–440
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 624 vs event baseline 393.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

640.6Season APEX680.2

65.1Auto59.4

236.3Teleop186.9

57.7Endgame83.6

91Consistency161

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	82
teleop	182	132
endgame	93	31
foul	20	10
total	369	255

Result

Final score

369 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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