Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

269.41 – 167.58

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

333 – 373

Prediction missed · off by 134.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 660.1 ±10.7

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 94.89Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 81.64Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 92.88Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 535.3 ±10.5

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 71.39Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX -7.47Rank 62Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 103.66Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6998, 624, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.4 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 6998, 624, 1629

Auto

24.0 9%

Teleop

135.7 52%

Endgame

103.2 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6391, 3008, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.6 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 6391, 3008, 469

Auto

14.4 9%

Teleop

88.3 54%

Endgame

59.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score269.4pts

Blue projected score167.6pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.8
Score range: 97–340
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 706 vs event baseline 394.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

660.1Season APEX535.3

24Auto14.4

135.7Teleop88.3

103.2Endgame59.8

181Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	87
teleop	155	173
endgame	110	83
foul	5	30
total	333	373

Result

Final score

333 – 373

Prediction missed · off by 134.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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