Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

415.93 – 342.22

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

525 – 622

Prediction missed · off by 194.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 709.9 ±9.8

176Aces High

Season APEX 277.5Event APEX 117.65Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3478PrepaTec - LamBot

Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 246.55Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 51.73Rank 50Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 792.3 ±9.3

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 63.62Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 113.07Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 165.53Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 176, 3478, 5550

/ 100 compat

Projected

415.9 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 176, 3478, 5550

Auto

92.6 22%

Teleop

221.3 53%

Endgame

99.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4189, 4028, 3538

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.2 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 4189, 4028, 3538

Auto

98.1 29%

Teleop

171.0 51%

Endgame

67.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score415.9pts

Blue projected score342.2pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.7
Score range: 272–486
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1147 vs event baseline 391.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

709.9Season APEX792.3

92.6Auto98.1

221.3Teleop171

99.9Endgame67.4

121Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	138	101
teleop	297	337
endgame	80	184
foul	10	0
total	525	622

Result

Final score

525 – 622

Prediction missed · off by 194.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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