Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

380.88 – 291.08

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

598 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 176.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 821 ±9.3

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 256.68Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 1.97Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 122.23Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 592.9 ±9.8

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 79.23Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 113.45Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 98.4Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1323, 6696, 2399

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.9 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1323, 6696, 2399

Auto

83.8 22%

Teleop

191.6 51%

Endgame

102.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 303, 972, 2530

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.1 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 303, 972, 2530

Auto

60.2 21%

Teleop

118.9 42%

Endgame

105.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score380.9pts

Blue projected score291.1pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.8
Score range: 221–451
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 753 vs event baseline 391.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

821Season APEX592.9

83.8Auto60.2

191.6Teleop118.9

102.7Endgame105.4

216Consistency181

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	128	41
teleop	327	64
endgame	143	50
foul	0	0
total	598	155

Result

Final score

598 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 176.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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