Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

193.66 – 393.09

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

302 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 58.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 553.5 ±9.9

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 131.66Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4188Columbus Space Program

Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 107.51Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX -45.51Rank 74Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 678.4 ±13.9

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 157.8Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 102.08Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 133.21Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1727, 4188, 10229

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.7 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1727, 4188, 10229

Auto

51.2 26%

Teleop

93.4 47%

Endgame

52.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3339, 9545, 7632

/ 100 compat

Projected

393.1 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3339, 9545, 7632

Auto

69.5 19%

Teleop

219.1 59%

Endgame

83.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.55 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score193.7pts

Blue projected score393.1pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -199.4
Score range: 123–464
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 703 vs event baseline 392.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

553.5Season APEX678.4

51.2Auto69.5

93.4Teleop219.1

52.6Endgame83.9

165Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	93
teleop	151	223
endgame	97	85
foul	5	0
total	302	401

Result

Final score

302 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 58.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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