Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

484.94 – 413.57

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

559 – 373

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 788.6 ±8.7

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 122.82Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 219.26Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 142.86Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 738.2 ±9.8

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 139.7Rank 31Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 84.48Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 189.39Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3314, 2073, 6919

/ 100 compat

Projected

484.9 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 3314, 2073, 6919

Auto

74.0 15%

Teleop

287.0 58%

Endgame

135.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9175, 1538, 6941

/ 100 compat

Projected

413.6 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 9175, 1538, 6941

Auto

91.3 22%

Teleop

239.2 59%

Endgame

75.5 19%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score484.9pts

Blue projected score413.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.4
Score range: 344–555
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 932 vs event baseline 391.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

788.6Season APEX738.2

74Auto91.3

287Teleop239.2

135.3Endgame75.5

128Consistency227

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	59
teleop	325	206
endgame	117	103
foul	10	5
total	559	373

Result

Final score

559 – 373

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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