Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

542.88 – 355.54

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

649 – 485

Prediction correct · off by 117.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 755.2 ±9.4

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 150.53Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 238.47Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 153.88Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 658.2 ±9.3

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 88.77Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 132.06Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5534Onaway Onabots

Season APEX 176.3Event APEX 134.71Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5847, 1325, 4674

/ 100 compat

Projected

542.9 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 5847, 1325, 4674

Auto

121.9 23%

Teleop

346.2 65%

Endgame

66.0 12%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3100, 11, 5534

/ 100 compat

Projected

355.5 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 3100, 11, 5534

Auto

25.2 8%

Teleop

234.7 72%

Endgame

65.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score542.9pts

Blue projected score355.5pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 187.3
Score range: 286–613
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1134 vs event baseline 388.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

755.2Season APEX658.2

121.9Auto25.2

346.2Teleop234.7

66Endgame65.9

108Consistency168

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	60
teleop	388	253
endgame	134	172
foul	5	0
total	649	485

Result

Final score

649 – 485

Prediction correct · off by 117.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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