Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

656.76 – 309.6

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

443 – 397

Prediction correct · off by 150.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 820.6 ±8.7

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 264.57Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 170.74Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 221.45Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 626.2 ±9.8

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 134.09Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 58.49Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 117.02Rank 23Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 316, 1058, 272

/ 100 compat

Projected

656.8 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 316, 1058, 272

Auto

117.0 18%

Teleop

334.7 51%

Endgame

200.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2883, 3990, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.6 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2883, 3990, 1720

Auto

75.1 24%

Teleop

168.6 53%

Endgame

74.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.76 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score656.8pts

Blue projected score309.6pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 347.2
Score range: 240–727
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 840 vs event baseline 387.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

820.6Season APEX626.2

117Auto75.1

334.7Teleop168.6

200.6Endgame74.7

112Consistency190

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	91
teleop	267	264
endgame	85	42
foul	15	0
total	443	397

Result

Final score

443 – 397

Prediction correct · off by 150.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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