Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

397.99 – 247.87

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

480 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 640.1 ±10.5

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 141.16Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 124.35Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 132.48Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 534.9 ±9.8

1155SciBorgs

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 60.19Rank 67Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 151.1Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 36.58Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2338, 5813, 3646

/ 100 compat

Projected

398 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 2338, 5813, 3646

Auto

44.2 12%

Teleop

241.2 63%

Endgame

96.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1155, 1676, 2718

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.9 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1155, 1676, 2718

Auto

62.6 25%

Teleop

121.8 49%

Endgame

64.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score398pts

Blue projected score247.9pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.1
Score range: 178–468
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 724 vs event baseline 388.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

640.1Season APEX534.9

44.2Auto62.6

241.2Teleop121.8

96.1Endgame64.7

157Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	59
teleop	284	117
endgame	135	63
foul	0	5
total	480	244

Result

Final score

480 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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