Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

333.21 – 402.85

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

521 – 371

Prediction missed · off by 109.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 792.2 ±9.3

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 153.55Rank 52Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 73.01Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 106.65Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 614.7 ±9.8

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 48.25Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2530Inconceivable

Season APEX 184.6Event APEX 116.93Rank 59Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6017PrepaTec - Cyberius

Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 237.67Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1156, 469, 4028

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.2 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1156, 469, 4028

Auto

75.5 23%

Teleop

208.9 63%

Endgame

47.4 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4189, 2530, 6017

/ 100 compat

Projected

402.9 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 4189, 2530, 6017

Auto

42.5 11%

Teleop

224.9 59%

Endgame

113.2 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score333.2pts

Blue projected score402.9pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.6
Score range: 263–473
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 892 vs event baseline 386.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

792.2Season APEX614.7

75.5Auto42.5

208.9Teleop224.9

47.4Endgame113.2

127Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	72
teleop	285	178
endgame	142	121
foul	0	0
total	521	371

Result

Final score

521 – 371

Prediction missed · off by 109.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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