Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

204.67 – 328.86

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

177 – 419

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 498 ±10.5

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 107.76Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10229Event Horizon

Season APEX 145.5Event APEX 19.78Rank 74Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

999MechaRAMS

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 77.13Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 728.5 ±9.3

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 208.96Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 32.65Rank 50Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 87.25Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 972, 10229, 999

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.7 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 972, 10229, 999

Auto

52.6 28%

Teleop

88.6 46%

Endgame

49.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 272, 5550, 1538

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.9 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 272, 5550, 1538

Auto

69.2 22%

Teleop

192.9 61%

Endgame

53.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score204.7pts

Blue projected score328.9pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.2
Score range: 132–402
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 596 vs event baseline 407.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

498Season APEX728.5

52.6Auto69.2

88.6Teleop192.9

49.8Endgame53.7

150Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	90
teleop	91	278
endgame	24	46
foul	20	5
total	177	419

Result

Final score

177 – 419

Prediction correct · off by 58.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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