Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

565.53 – 102.38

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

780 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 129.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 951.7 ±8.7

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 375.19Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 96.52Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 93.82Rank 38Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.5 ±10.5

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 24.5Rank 73Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX 69.46Rank 50Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 8.42Rank 62Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4414, 4678, 2429

/ 100 compat

Projected

565.5 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4414, 4678, 2429

Auto

129.4 22%

Teleop

350.4 61%

Endgame

96.2 17%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10619, 5550, 3008

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~0.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 10619, 5550, 3008

Auto

13.5 15%

Teleop

45.2 49%

Endgame

34.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.78 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score565.5pts

Blue projected score102.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 463.2
Score range: 32–636
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 838 vs event baseline 386.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

951.7Season APEX383.5

129.4Auto13.5

350.4Teleop45.2

96.2Endgame34.1

237Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	160	11
teleop	383	22
endgame	232	25
foul	5	0
total	780	58

Result

Final score

780 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 129.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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