Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

486.76 – 257.13

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

439 – 478

Prediction missed · off by 134.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 799.7 ±13.5

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 183.6Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 156.46Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3339BumbleB

A+

Season APEX 296.4Event APEX 146.7Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 685.5 ±9.3

9545Caracal Robotics

Season APEX 192.5Event APEX 83.48Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 85.82Rank 30Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 87.83Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3538, 2399, 3339

/ 100 compat

Projected

486.8 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 3538, 2399, 3339

Auto

101.7 21%

Teleop

276.5 58%

Endgame

99.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9545, 5937, 7520

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.1 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 9545, 5937, 7520

Auto

22.1 10%

Teleop

129.5 56%

Endgame

79.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.71 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score486.8pts

Blue projected score257.1pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 229.6
Score range: 188–556
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 917 vs event baseline 384.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

799.7Season APEX685.5

101.7Auto22.1

276.5Teleop129.5

99.1Endgame79.8

220Consistency204

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	90
teleop	233	230
endgame	102	153
foul	5	5
total	439	478

Result

Final score

439 – 478

Prediction missed · off by 134.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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