Qualification · Qualification 46
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
413.91 – 369.1
64%36%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
458 – 201
Prediction correct · off by 106.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 703.6 ±9.3
Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 187.34Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 46.21Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 180.36Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 673.9 ±11.2
Season APEX 221Event APEX 130.76Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 34.26Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 204.08Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6941, 624, 3656
70
/ 100 compatProjected
413.9 pts
~2.0 RP (championship)
Teams: 6941, 624, 3656
Auto
56.2 14%
Teleop
245.8 62%
Endgame
95.3 24%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 12%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6106, 6696, 5847
68
/ 100 compatProjected
369.1 pts
~1.3 RP (championship)
Teams: 6106, 6696, 5847
Auto
81.7 22%
Teleop
178.4 49%
Endgame
106.2 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 12%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.31
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score413.9pts
Blue projected score369.1pts
Red win probability64%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 14%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 44.8
- Score range
- 300–483
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
703.6Season APEX673.9
56.2Auto81.7
245.8Teleop178.4
95.3Endgame106.2
152Consistency132
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 86 | 86 |
| teleop | 285 | 113 |
| endgame | 72 | 2 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 458 | 201 |
Result
Final score
458 – 201
Prediction correct · off by 106.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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