Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

385.07 – 451.24

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

403 – 300

Prediction missed · off by 84.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 620.1 ±9.8

4674RoboJacks

Season APEX 193Event APEX 158.56Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 146.46Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 80.05Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 711.4 ±9.3

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 96.78Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 170.51Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10213BALTA

Season APEX 217.9Event APEX 183.95Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4674, 1058, 6391

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.1 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 4674, 1058, 6391

Auto

80.2 21%

Teleop

264.2 68%

Endgame

42.6 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1538, 1727, 10213

/ 100 compat

Projected

451.2 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 1538, 1727, 10213

Auto

71.2 16%

Teleop

283.6 65%

Endgame

79.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score385.1pts

Blue projected score451.2pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.2
Score range: 315–521
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 703 vs event baseline 386.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

620.1Season APEX711.4

80.2Auto71.2

264.2Teleop283.6

42.6Endgame79.3

189Consistency212

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	86
teleop	225	120
endgame	87	79
foul	5	15
total	403	300

Result

Final score

403 – 300

Prediction missed · off by 84.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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