Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

500.24 – 420.14

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

365 – 512

Prediction missed · off by 113.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 612.2 ±9.8

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 229.95Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 170.72Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 99.57Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 801.4 ±10.2

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 75.23Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 107.28Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 237.63Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 272, 7632, 303

/ 100 compat

Projected

500.2 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 272, 7632, 303

Auto

85.4 17%

Teleop

298.4 60%

Endgame

110.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6998, 3314, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

420.1 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 6998, 3314, 1325

Auto

66.3 16%

Teleop

190.3 47%

Endgame

150.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score500.2pts

Blue projected score420.1pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.1
Score range: 351–569
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 877 vs event baseline 385.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

612.2Season APEX801.4

85.4Auto66.3

298.4Teleop190.3

110Endgame150.5

139Consistency164

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	104
teleop	201	278
endgame	101	130
foul	0	0
total	365	512

Result

Final score

365 – 512

Prediction missed · off by 113.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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