Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

343.05 – 310.41

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

379 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 727.5 ±9.8

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 209.93Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 66.07Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3100The Lightning Turtles

Season APEX 216.5Event APEX 67.05Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 643.3 ±9.3

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 145.35Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

972Iron Claw

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 84.48Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 80.58Rank 71Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2073, 11178, 3100

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.1 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 2073, 11178, 3100

Auto

37.2 11%

Teleop

183.7 57%

Endgame

103.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1676, 972, 3990

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.4 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1676, 972, 3990

Auto

96.8 32%

Teleop

119.2 40%

Endgame

84.7 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score343.1pts

Blue projected score310.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.6
Score range: 240–413
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 686 vs event baseline 390.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

727.5Season APEX643.3

37.2Auto96.8

183.7Teleop119.2

103.4Endgame84.7

101Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	64
teleop	246	91
endgame	41	152
foul	0	0
total	379	307

Result

Final score

379 – 307

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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