Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

268.6 – 427.95

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

222 – 447

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 512.7 ±11.1

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 104.99Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3646INTEGRA BAHCESEHIR

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 170.79Rank 65Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX -7.18Rank 51Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 738.3 ±9.9

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 138.62Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 246.48Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 42.85Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9094, 3646, 3880

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.6 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 9094, 3646, 3880

Auto

66.1 24%

Teleop

95.3 35%

Endgame

113.3 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5813, 316, 5557

/ 100 compat

Projected

428 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 5813, 316, 5557

Auto

81.0 20%

Teleop

203.9 49%

Endgame

129.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score268.6pts

Blue projected score428pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -159.3
Score range: 198–499
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 669 vs event baseline 391.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

512.7Season APEX738.3

66.1Auto81

95.3Teleop203.9

113.3Endgame129.9

82Consistency193

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	104
teleop	131	234
endgame	66	109
foul	0	0
total	222	447

Result

Final score

222 – 447

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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