Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

388.16 – 229.08

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

423 – 377

Prediction correct · off by 91.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 636.8 ±9.8

2472Centurions

Season APEX 195.7Event APEX 125.81Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2883F.R.E.D (FIRST Robotics Engineering and Design)

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 167.04Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 95.31Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 587.9 ±9.8

1880Warriors of East Harlem

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 96.7Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 8.17Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 124.21Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2472, 2883, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.2 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2472, 2883, 1629

Auto

69.2 18%

Teleop

215.1 56%

Endgame

97.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1880, 1741, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.1 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1880, 1741, 2338

Auto

26.4 12%

Teleop

129.8 59%

Endgame

65.4 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score388.2pts

Blue projected score229.1pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 159.1
Score range: 159–458
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 800 vs event baseline 391.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

636.8Season APEX587.9

69.2Auto26.4

215.1Teleop129.8

97.6Endgame65.4

193Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	96
teleop	224	158
endgame	152	123
foul	0	0
total	423	377

Result

Final score

423 – 377

Prediction correct · off by 91.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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