Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

366.16 – 404.39

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

477 – 462

Prediction missed · off by 84.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 722.1 ±8.7

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 200.27Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 60.37Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 105.52Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 660.3 ±9.5

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 166.98Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 223.83Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 13.58Rank 62Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3538, 6919, 1727

/ 100 compat

Projected

366.2 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3538, 6919, 1727

Auto

69.6 20%

Teleop

183.7 52%

Endgame

102.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3656, 1325, 3008

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.4 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3656, 1325, 3008

Auto

77.6 20%

Teleop

202.5 53%

Endgame

104.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score366.2pts

Blue projected score404.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.2
Score range: 295–475
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 939 vs event baseline 395.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

722.1Season APEX660.3

69.6Auto77.6

183.7Teleop202.5

102.3Endgame104.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	108
teleop	279	232
endgame	98	87
foul	5	35
total	477	462

Result

Final score

477 – 462

Prediction missed · off by 84.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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